Metals generally rose, with LME zinc up over 2%, alumina up more than 3% recording seven consecutive days of gains, and New York gold futures hitting a one-month low [overnight market]

SMM News on May 15:

Metal Market:

Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally rose. LME zinc led the gains with a 2.09% increase, while LME aluminum and SHFE zinc both rose by over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.31% and SHFE zinc up 1.24%. LME copper was the only metal to decline, with a drop of 0.08%, while the gains of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina futures contract rose by 3.51%, recording seven consecutive days of gains.

The ferrous metals series also collectively rose, with iron ore leading the gains with a 1.3% increase. The gains of other metals fluctuated slightly. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 0.97% and coke rose by 0.85%.

In precious metals, COMEX gold fell by 2.07% overnight, hitting a new low since April 10. COMEX silver fell by 2.15%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 2.04% and SHFE silver fell by 1.4%.

Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 a.m. on May 15

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic:

[PBOC: Total Social Financing Increased by 16.34 Trillion Yuan from January to April, New Loans Increased by 10.06 Trillion Yuan, M2 Grew 8% YoY in April] PBOC data showed that China's total social financing increased by 16.34 trillion yuan from January to April, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, up 8% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, up 1.5% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.14 trillion yuan, up 12% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 319.3 billion yuan. New RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan from January to April. At the end of April, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 269.54 trillion yuan, up 6.8% YoY. The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, up 7.2% YoY. 》Click to view details

On May 14, Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a symposium with private enterprises, focusing on listening to opinions and suggestions regarding the current economic situation and the implementation of policies to stabilize employment and the economy. At the meeting, the heads of participating enterprises introduced the development of their companies and industries, and also put forward suggestions for promoting the high-quality development of private enterprises under the new situation.

US Dollar:

The US dollar index rose by 0.08% overnight, rebounding from earlier declines as investors awaited new signals that the global trade war would continue to ease. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar index jumped over 1% on Monday and hit a new high in a month. However, as the decline in food costs partially offset the increase in rent, a measure of consumer prices fell short of economists' expectations, and the US dollar exchange rate fell on Tuesday.

Given the easing of trade tensions, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut this year have been revised downward. According to data, the probability of the first rate cut of at least 25 basis points occurring at the September meeting is 74%, whereas previous views suggested a rate cut in July. Several major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Barclays, have recently scaled back their forecasts for a US recession and their views on the US Fed's easing policies.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that the data showing mild consumer inflation in April does not necessarily reflect the impact of rising US import tariffs, and the US Fed still needs more data to determine the direction of prices and the economy.

US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson echoed similar views, stating that recent inflation data indicate good progress towards achieving the US Fed's 2% target, but the current outlook is uncertain due to the potential for new import taxes to drive up prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

In other currency news:

The South Korean won rose 0.84% against the US dollar, after previously gaining 2.1%. The US dollar fell to its lowest level against the won in a week, but the movement of Asian currencies has eased. The US dollar fell 0.52% against the Japanese yen to 146.71, with intraday losses reaching as high as 1.2%.

The British pound fell 0.32% to $1.3261. Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), stated that she voted to keep borrowing costs unchanged last week because the resilience of the UK labour market exceeded her expectations. She had sought a significant 50 basis point cut in borrowing costs in February.

On the macro front:

Today, the following data will be released: the operation scale of China's Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) on May 15, the winning bid interest rate of China's Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) on May 15, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10, the US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the next 6 months, the US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US April PPI year-on-year rate, the US April core PPI year-on-year rate, the US April core retail sales month-on-month rate, the US April retail sales year-on-year rate, the US April retail sales control group month-on-month rate linked to GDP - seasonally adjusted, the US April industrial production month-on-month rate, the US April capacity utilisation rate, the US April manufacturing production month-on-month rate, the US April industrial production year-on-year rate - seasonally adjusted, Australia's April RBA foreign exchange transactions - market channel, Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Australia's April change in employed population, the UK's March GDP month-on-month rate, the UK's March industrial production month-on-month rate, the UK's March industrial production year-on-year rate, the UK's March merchandise trade balance - seasonally adjusted, the UK's March seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's preliminary Q1 production-based GDP year-on-year rate, Canada's March manufacturing sales month-on-month rate, Canada's March manufacturing new orders month-on-month rate, the Eurozone's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter rate revised value, the Eurozone's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year rate revised value, and other data.

Additionally, Fed Chairman Powell delivered opening remarks at an event, and the US Fed held the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, which will focus on research in monetary policy and economics. It is expected to provide an academic perspective for the Fed's commitment to conducting a review of its monetary policy framework every five years, running until the 16th. Mary Daly, the 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, participated in a fireside chat.

Crude Oil:

Oil prices in both markets fell overnight, with US crude dropping 1.23% and Brent crude declining 1.17%. This followed earlier data showing an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week, sparking investor concerns about a supply surplus. A stronger US dollar made dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby hurting demand.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that US crude oil inventories rose last week as the country imported more oil, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined ahead of the summer driving season. The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9, against market expectations of a 1.1 million barrel decline. Data released by the API on Tuesday also showed a significant increase of 4.3 million barrels in crude oil inventories last week.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in its monthly report that crude oil production by all OPEC+ member countries fell by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared to March, despite eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries vowing to begin easing production cuts. However, OPEC+ lowered its forecast for oil supply growth this year from the US and other non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries in the report. (Wenhua Comprehensive)